Bob Knakal Examines the Disconnect Between Capital Flow and Transaction Activity in Manhattan Investment Sales Market
Oct 15, 2026
BKREA Chairman & CEO’s latest Commercial Observer “Concrete Thoughts” column finds dollar volume approaching pre-pandemic levels while transaction velocity remains below the long-term average
New York, NY, United States, October 15, 2026 -- Bob Knakal, Founder, Chairman & CEO of BKREA, examines the evolving state of Manhattan’s investment sales market in his latest Concrete Thoughts column for Commercial Observer, highlighting a critical distinction between the amount of capital moving through the market and the number of properties actually changing hands.
In “In Manhattan Investment Sales, the Money Is Moving Faster Than the Market,” Knakal analyzes 2025 and first-half 2026 investment sales data to demonstrate that while capital is returning to Manhattan real estate, transaction activity has not yet fully recovered to historical levels.
Manhattan investment sales totaled $19.914 billion in 2025, while the market recorded $10.173 billion during the first half of 2026. Based on first-half activity, 2026 is currently on pace to reach approximately $20.346 billion in investment sales volume.
However, the number of transactions tells a different story. BKREA recorded 693 Manhattan investment property sales in 2025, compared with 341 transactions during the first half of 2026. At that pace, the market would finish the year with approximately 682 sales, below the long-term annual average of approximately 704 properties sold between 1984 and 2025.
“Dollar volume tells us how much money is moving; properties sold tell us how much the market is moving.”
Knakal’s analysis points to improving conditions across several major sectors of Manhattan commercial real estate. Office, retail, land, hotels and free-market multifamily are all showing signs of increased activity. Office investment and leasing have strengthened, condominium development is supporting demand for land, limited new hotel supply is benefiting the hospitality sector, and strong rental fundamentals continue to support free-market multifamily.
At the same time, rent-regulated multifamily remains a significant outlier. Constrained revenue growth and rising operating expenses continue to weigh on the sector. Based on BKREA’s observations, values in the sector remain approximately 80 percent below their peak.
Knakal also places the current market in historical context, noting the significant recovery from the pandemic-era trough. In 2020, just 385 Manhattan investment properties traded, compared with the 341 properties recorded during the first half of 2026 alone. The return of capital, improved financing conditions and stronger investor confidence demonstrate meaningful progress. Yet the number of sellers bringing properties to market remains below historically normal levels.
According to Knakal, the next phase of the recovery will depend not only on larger transactions or greater amounts of capital entering the market, but on a broader increase in the number of properties changing hands. A sustained level of transaction activity above the long-term average would signal a more comprehensive recovery in market velocity.
“The Manhattan investment sales market has clearly moved a long way from the depths of the pandemic,” said Knakal. “Capital is moving, financing is available and confidence has improved. But the number of properties changing hands remains the critical metric to watch. The next stage of the recovery will be defined by transaction velocity.”
Knakal’s latest column provides a data-driven framework for evaluating Manhattan investment sales beyond headline dollar volume, emphasizing the importance of measuring both dollars invested and properties sold to understand the true breadth of market activity.
About the company: BKREA is a New York City commercial real estate brokerage founded by Bob Knakal in 2024. Specializing in investment sales and advisory, the firm combines proprietary market research, decades of transaction experience and technology to help property owners evaluate opportunities and maximize property sales value.
Contact Info:
Name: Bob Knakal
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Organization: BKREA
Address: 135 West 36th Street NY NY 10018
Phone: 212-888-8850
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